Broadcom Stock Drops After AI Guidance; Goldman Sachs Reaffirms Buy Rating with Increased Target
Vicki RobinCo-author of "Your Money or Your Life," a classic on financial independence and mindful spending.
Broadcom's recent fiscal second-quarter financial announcement, despite surpassing market revenue and earnings per share forecasts, led to a substantial drop in its stock value. This market reaction was predominantly fueled by the company's cautious outlook for third-quarter AI semiconductor revenue, which did not meet elevated analyst predictions. Nevertheless, Goldman Sachs has expressed confidence in the semiconductor giant, advocating for aggressive buying during this dip and projecting a considerable upside.
Detailed Report on Broadcom's Financial Performance and Analyst Outlook
On June 4, 2026, Broadcom unveiled its fiscal second-quarter results, reporting revenues of $22.2 billion, slightly above the Street's estimate of $22.1 billion, and an adjusted EPS of $2.44, surpassing the consensus of $2.39. A standout achievement was the remarkable 143% year-over-year surge in AI semiconductor revenue, reaching $10.8 billion. Despite these impressive figures, investor sentiment turned negative following the company's guidance for the third quarter, which projected AI semiconductor revenue at $16.0 billion, falling short of the $16.4 billion analysts had anticipated. Furthermore, CEO Hock Tan's decision to reiterate, rather than raise, the full-year AI target of 'in excess of $100 billion' for fiscal year 2027, disappointed a market that had priced in higher expectations given the stock's record highs.
In response to the market's downturn, Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider reinforced a 'Buy' rating for Broadcom, increasing his 12-month price target from $500 to $525. This revised target, based on a steady 30x multiple applied to an elevated normalized EPS estimate of $17.50, suggests a potential upside of nearly 30% from the premarket trading price of around $408. Broadcom also retains its position on Goldman Sachs's prestigious 'Conviction List' of recommended stocks. Schneider urged investors to capitalize on the stock's pullback, emphasizing Broadcom's robust growth projections for 2027 and beyond. His optimistic stance is underpinned by three key factors: a projected fiscal-year 2027 AI semiconductor revenue significantly exceeding $100 billion across up to 10 gigawatts of data center deployments; an expanding portfolio of custom-silicon engagements with major tech players like Google, Meta, Anthropic, and OpenAI; and a secured supply chain for critical components through fiscal year 2027, despite prevailing industry shortages.
Broadcom has successfully onboarded six custom-chip clients, with an additional two XPU clients committing to $6 billion in purchase orders slated for delivery starting in late 2026. Projections indicate that Anthropic will broaden its initial 1-gigawatt deployment by an extra 5 gigawatts beginning in fiscal 2027, while OpenAI aims for a 1.3-gigawatt deployment in the upcoming year. Meta's custom XPU initiative is also forecast for considerable expansion through 2028. Goldman Sachs has consequently adjusted its AI semiconductor revenue estimates to $57 billion, $133 billion, and $193 billion for fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively. Schneider underscored Broadcom's dominant role in AI networking and custom silicon, asserting that these capabilities provide the most cost-effective inference solutions for leading hyperscale customers. The company's strong demand for Ethernet networking products, including its Tomahawk switch family, further highlights its integral position in AI infrastructure spending beyond custom chips, with networking contributing approximately 40% of its AI semiconductor revenue during the quarter.
This scenario highlights the inherent volatility of the stock market, where even stellar quarterly performances can be overshadowed by future guidance and high investor expectations. For technology companies like Broadcom, operating at the cutting edge of AI, growth forecasts are scrutinized intensely. The market's reaction, while initially harsh, also presents an opportunity for investors who believe in the long-term fundamentals and strategic positioning of the company, as evidenced by Goldman Sachs's unwavering confidence. It underscores the critical role of innovation and strategic supply chain management in navigating the competitive landscape of the semiconductor industry.

